On 4 September 2024, the European Institute of Romania (EIR) organized an online meeting with Romanian and international experts in geopolitics. The event was a follow-up to the Collective Report published by EIR in April 2024, titled “From Synergy to Strategy in the Black Sea Region. Assessing Opportunities and Challenges”. The Institute aimed to facilitate the exchange of ideas and to stimulate reflection on what is happening now in the Black Sea region. The meeting was held under the Chatham House Rules.
The main ideas discussed:
- The Black Sea region remains an area of interest and significant relevance for the European and international security. Both the threats in the region and NATO’s deterrence capacity should be reassessed. NATO and the EU are the main pillars of the regional security. In this context, the importance of cooperation formats such as Bucharest 9 and the Three Seas Initiative was also emphasized.
- The focus in the South Caucasus should be on peacebuilding, regional integration and cooperation, opening of the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Security risks in the area prevent the development of efficient regional cooperation projects.
- The states in the region, just like those in other regions of the world, are vulnerable to climate change. The effects of this phenomenon will be seen in many areas including in water management.
- The Black Sea was among the most polluted seas in the region even before the outbreak of the war against Ukraine. There is a high risk it will turn into a Dead Sea. We are at a turning point in terms of the environment. Therefore, concerns over climate change and the protection of the environment should be prioritised.
- Türkiye continues to be a key player in the region, though its interest has recently shifted towards the Middle East. Its main aim in the Black Sea region is to balance the Russian Federation and it is extremely careful in its balancing act.
- It is also important to better connect the region with Central Europe –Via Carpathia is a flagship initiative in this sense (it goes from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea and it continues as far as the Aegean Sea). The Black Sea states should be interested to support these initiatives.
- The relevance of the Crimean Peninsula: maybe the entire war is a result of the Crimea operation (the 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea). This influenced Russian foreign policy because Crimea is unsustainable as a Russian exclave.
- Global food security has been affected by the war of aggression against Ukraine, which has deepened the threats for the people already affected by food insecurity.
General recommendations for the countries interested in the extended Black Sea region:
- Encourage the regional initiatives which may help the states develop (like the Three Seas Initiative) and strengthen the cooperation and partnerships.
- Understand the challenges in the economic sector, especially at the European level, to better prepare for the future trade routes.